Astros brass sees potential in consistently 'underranked' farm system
WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. -- The last time the Astros landed in the top 10 of MLB Pipeline’s farm system rankings was before the 2019 season. Since those rankings expanded to all 30 teams ahead of the 2020 season -- 11 lists in total -- they’ve never ranked higher than
WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. -- The last time the Astros landed in the top 10 of MLB Pipeline’s farm system rankings was before the 2019 season. Since those rankings expanded to all 30 teams ahead of the 2020 season -- 11 lists in total -- they’ve never ranked higher than 27th and landed No. 29 on this year’s preseason list.
That clearly hasn’t impacted their ability to win at the Major League level, having reached the playoffs eight straight years. And they continue to get major contributions to the big league team from relatively unheralded prospects, maximizing talents from late-round Draft picks or bargain international signees.
“One of the things that we take pride in is being able to extract everything we can from the players that we have,” said Jacob Buffa, Astros senior director of player development and performance science. “And overall, I think our group has done a pretty good job. We're not going to hit on every single player, but I think we have a pretty good process that allows us to give the Major League team players that will ultimately help them win a World Series.”
Right now, the system does lean toward bats, with the top five of the new Top 30 all position players, headlined by new acquisition -- and No. 1 prospect -- Cam Smith. It’s the best assortment of hitters the system has had in some time and four of the five (2024 first-round pick Walker Janek is the exception) have the chance to impact the big league roster during the 2025 season.
The pitchers are trying to catch up. Right-hander Miguel Ullola (No. 6), signed for $75,000 in 2021, led the Minors in average-against (.163) and raced to Triple-A in '24 -- though he left the Astros’ Spring Breakout game last Friday with shoulder discomfort. No. 7 Anderson Brito thrived in reaching full-season ball for the first time last year. Ethan Pecko (No. 10), the organization’s Minor League Pitcher of the Year, and A.J. Blubaugh (No. 11) excelled at the upper levels while four Astros arms -- Blubaugh, Colton Gordon (No. 16), Ryan Gusto (No. 21) and Wander Suero -- were all named Triple-A Pacific Coast League All-Stars, once again giving the organization a pool of perhaps lesser-known (but ultimately big league-ready) pitchers to call upon as they try to compete in the AL West again.
“One of the strengths of our pitching development, it’s not just a broad sweeping, ‘Hey, this is something that we focused on and this is a common theme that allowed all these guys to get better,'” said Buffa, pointing to Ullola’s improved walk rates and Blubaugh’s continued velocity jumps as distinct examples. “It’s different modes of success for all of them. That’s one of the things that I’m proud of with our pitching department. It’s an individualized approach for each one of the guys.”
It’s not that the Astros don’t see things like farm system rankings and likely think they’re underranked regularly. It’s just not something they focus on, knowing that their mode of operation seems to work, even if it’s underappreciated.
“We notice it and our players notice it, but It’s not our ultimate target,” Buffa said. “We’d love for our players to get recognition for their sake, not necessarily because we want it to reflect a certain way on the program.
“These guys put in a lot of really hard work and they’re talented, and as their coaches, we believe in them, so we’d love for them to get recognition. But ultimately that’s not how we’re going to assess success or failure.”
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Camp standout: Brice Matthews
Matthews (No. 2) was the Astros’ first-round pick in 2023 after posting a 20-20 season at Nebraska in his Draft year. Hailing from suburban Houston, the local kid came home and had a very solid first full season of pro ball, making it to Triple-A despite missing a chunk of the season with back problems. He finished the year with 15 homers and 32 steals in 79 games.
Matthews’ numbers in Grapefruit League games don’t jump off the page, but the Astros have loved how much he looked like he belonged in big league camp, all while focusing on the right side of the infield more than he has previously, though he did play more there during his time in the Puerto Rican Winter League during the offseason.
“He’s looked fantastic on and off the field,” Buffa said. “He’s come in confident, he’s shown some leadership abilities. He’s playing second right now, which he didn’t play last year. And he looks great at second. He’s putting together good ABs with good quality contact.”
Breakout candidate: Jackson Nezuh
Nezuh was the club’s 14th-round pick in the 2023 Draft out of Louisiana-Lafayette -- yet another late-round find for the Astros. He didn’t throw after signing, but then was leading the Single-A Carolina League with 105 strikeouts in 81 2/3 innings before getting promoted to High-A in July of his first full season. His 30 percent strikeout rate and 3.15 K/BB rate really stood out.
“He has an electric fastball that misses a lot of bats,” Buffa said. “He has a good breaking ball. We’re very excited about him, and I think by the end of the year, a lot of people will be talking about him.”
Nezuh may have started the buzz early with his performance in the Astros’ Spring Breakout game. The right-hander, No. 15 on the Top 30, struck out four in 1 2/3 innings, including fanning the side in the sixth inning against Nationals prospects.
Something to prove: Cristian Gonzalez
Gonzalez signed with the Astros way back in July 2018 for $300,000. He had modest success early in his career, but had spent the 2022 season in High-A at age 20. Since then, he’s played just 10 games over the past two years, with a hamstring injury early in 2023 and then Tommy John surgery at the end of the season landing him on the 60-day injured list in both 2023 and 2024.
He’s healthy now and even got some time in big league Grapefruit League action. He’s still only 23 years old and will now hopefully get the chance to see if his skill set can carry him up the ladder ... if he can stay off the injured list.
“It was a really unfortunate series of injuries,” Buffa said. “He’s worked extremely hard and done a good job of coming back. He’s a tremendously talented infielder with multiple tools. I’m very intrigued to see him after having not played for almost two years.”
Jonathan Mayo is a reporter for MLBPipeline.com. Follow him on Facebook and @JonathanMayo, and listen to him on the weekly MLB Pipeline Podcast.
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