Texas' exciting crop of pitching prospects looks to spin the narrative

SURPRISE, Ariz. -- The Rangers haven't signed a fully homegrown pitching All-Star since Martín Pérez in 2007 and have ranked better than the Major League average in run prevention just once in the last 11 seasons. Not coincidentally, they won 90 games and the World Series when that happened in 2023.

But the outlook is bright for Texas pitching prospects these days. Jack Leiter (No. 3) and Kumar Rocker (No. 2/MLB No. 44), top-three-overall picks in the 2021 and 2022 Drafts, made their big league debuts last year. Winston Santos (No. 5) and Emiliano Teodo (No. 6), signed for $10,000 each out of the Dominican Republic in the same 2019-20 international class, successfully navigated Double-A and should arrive in Arlington in the near future, as should reliever Marc Church (No. 23), an 18th-round pick in '19.

Alejandro Rosario (No. 7), a fifth-rounder in 2023, dominated two Class A levels last year and some scouts believed he was the best mound prospect in the system before his elbow blew out last month and required Tommy John surgery. Strike throwers Mitch Bratt (No. 21) and Josh Stephan (No. 22) continued to thrive, while Paul Bonzagni (No. 24), Kolton Curtis (No. 29) and David Davalillo (No. 30) emerged at the lower levels last summer. Stephan and Curtis were non-drafted free agents, while Bonzagni was a 12th-rounder and Davalillo signed for $10,000 out of Venezeula.

"We're not all the way there yet but the narrative has been that we haven't been good at developing pitching," GM Ross Fenstermaker said. "Now we're having success and it's not just the pitchers we took up at the top of the Draft with Rocker and Leiter. It's also Rosario, [Jose] Corniell, Teodo, Santos, Church and more.

"It's scouting and player development working together, our medical and performance teams, the way we train our coaches to work with pitchers. We're doing things in a very different way than we did five or six years ago. It was very uncomfortable at first but now we're starting to see the fruits of our labor."

Rocker, who had shoulder surgery before joining the Rangers and Tommy John surgery shortly afterward, regained his wipeout mid-80s slider with two-plane depth last year while working at 96-97 mph and touching 100 with his fastball. Return to health keyed his success, while his former Vanderbilt teammate Leiter had to make adjustments after his mechanics, stuff and control all regressed during his first two years in pro ball.

Leiter won Triple-A Pacific Coast League pitcher of the year honors in 2024 after doing a better job of maintaining the timing with his delivery and providing more and higher quality strikes. He also works in the mid-90s and reaches triple digits with his fastball, while his upper-80s slider is the best of his four secondary offerings. He has added a promising kick-changeup in the low 90s that has the Rangers excited.

Leiter did get knocked around for an 8.83 ERA in five starts with Texas last year, underscoring his need to further improve his control and command.

"Jack has gone through a lot of adversity as pro and handled it well," farm director Josh Bonifay said. "He's outstanding with his fastball when he locates it at the top of the zone. He has outstanding breaking stuff, too. When he locates in the zone, he's very good."

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Santos parlayed some mechanical adjustments into improved fastball velocity, operating in the mid-90s and hitting 98 mph while tightening his mid-80s slider into a consistent plus pitch. Teodo has the best stuff in the system -- a 97-99 mph sinker that climbs to 102, an upper-80s slider that breaks straight down and a lively upper-80s changeup -- though evaluators are split on whether he'll wind up as a starter or reliever. Church is purely a bullpen option, albeit one with a mid-90s fastball, devastating mid-80s slider and a nasty 89-93 mph splitter that he unveiled in the Arizona Fall League last year.

"We're very excited about our pitching depth," Bonifay said. "But any time that you think that you have enough pitching, you don't. So we need to continue to work on developing pitchers."

Camp standout: Sebastian Walcott

Signed for $3.2 million out of the Bahamas in 2023, Walcott (No. 1/MLB No. 17) is one of the best and most exciting prospects in the Minors. The shortstop's raw power and arm strength both grade as at least plus-plus, and he batted .261/.342/.443 in High-A last year, leading the South Atlantic League in triples (nine), extra-base hits (50) and total bases (192) as its youngest regular (age 18).

Walcott won't turn 19 until Friday but impressed manager Bruce Bochy and his staff with his performance in big league camp. He went 4-for-9 with three doubles and a home run, soaked up plenty of advice from veteran Marcus Semien and looked like he belonged despite his youth.

"He acquitted himself quite well in this environment," Fenstermaker said. "Just watching him jog on the field the other day, he looked like a Major League player right now. The way he moved, his size, his physicality -- he carries himself very well.

"He's very, very mature. He's always been like that. He was raised so well. He has an element of polish you typically don't see at 18 or 19 years old."

Spring Breakout sleeper: David Davalillo

Davalillo comes from a baseball family, with a grandfather (Pompeyo) and great-uncle (Vic) who played in the Majors, a father (David) who reached Double-A and a younger brother (Gabriel) who signed with the Angels for $2 million in January. He's not very physical and he doesn't light up radar guns but he did lead the Minors with a 1.88 ERA between two Class A stops in 2024.

Davalillo's main weapon is a low-80s splitter that generated a 58 percent swing-and-miss rate last year. It's his lone pitch that grades as better than average, though the right-hander helps his cause by throwing strikes with five offerings, commanding his two- and four-seam fastballs well and sequencing his pitches masterfully.

"David has had a fantastic camp," Bonifay said. "His work ethic is so good. He committed to staying here in the offseason, working on his body, working on his arsenal, working on his strength. That splitter is filthy and I love the way he goes about his business. He has confidence on the mound."

Breakout potential: Pablo Guerrero

The son of Hall of Famer Vladimir Guerrero and the younger brother of All-Star slugger Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Pablo signed for $97,500 out of the Dominican Republic in 2023. He slashed .260/.343/.417 in his first two pro seasons and struggled after he moved to Single-A the day before he turned 18 last July. He spent the offseason improving his 6-foot-2 frame, leading to increased strength, exit velocities and athleticism.

"He's very physically strong," Bonifay said. "He changed his body and is hitting the ball extremely hard. He has discipline at the plate and when he makes impact, it's loud. He's turned himself into a good defensive first baseman and he's a leader in the clubhouse despite his age. He knows what it takes."