Globe iconLogin iconRecap iconSearch iconTickets icon

Sasaki leads Top 10 RHP Prospects list. Who else made the cut?

January 23, 2025

Last year, the right-hander we had at the top of this always-deep Top 10 prospects list went on to win the National League Rookie of the Year, as Pirates flamethrower Paul Skenes went from No. 1 pick in the 2023 Draft to top rookie in the NL a year later.

Last year, the right-hander we had at the top of this always-deep Top 10 prospects list went on to win the National League Rookie of the Year, as Pirates flamethrower Paul Skenes went from No. 1 pick in the 2023 Draft to top rookie in the NL a year later.

Now we’re looking to go 2-for-2. With the Roki Sasaki sweepstakes coming to an end and the Japanese phenom choosing the Dodgers, he vaults to the very top of this year’s Top 10 right-handed pitchers list. Since he’ll presumably step right into L.A.’s rotation, there’s even less of a question about whether he’ll contend for top rookie honors than with Skenes, who did not have an Opening Day roster spot waiting for him.

While Skenes obviously graduated, the No. 2 pitcher on the list has stayed the same the past two years, though we fully expect Jackson Jobe -- an American League ROY candidate himself -- to graduate this season. He’s joined by holdovers Andrew Painter, Chase Dollander and Rhett Lowder. Bubba Chandler was last year’s “keep an eye on” candidate, and he lived up to the billing, climbing up to No. 4 on this year’s list.

The Reds and Rangers have multiple prospects on the list, though that’s not unusual. At least one organization has put at least two top 10 right-handed pitching prospects on this list every year dating back to 2019 (the Marlins had three in 2022), and two teams had two reps apiece back in 2021 (Tigers and Mariners) and 2023 (Phillies and Dodgers).

Always an exciting list, this year’s is a bit top-heavy with very strong mound representation on the Top 100 list. But it’s not quite as deep as it’s been in past years, with the 19 right-handers total on the overall list representing an all-time low since we switched from a Top 50 to a Top 100.

The Top 10 (ETA)

  1. Roki Sasaki, Dodgers (2025)
  2. Jackson Jobe, Tigers (2025)
  3. Andrew Painter, Phillies (2025)
  4. Bubba Chandler, Pirates (2025)
  5. Chase Dollander, Rockies (2025)
  6. Chase Burns, Reds (2025)
  7. Rhett Lowder, Reds (2025)
  8. Kumar Rocker, Rangers (2025)
  9. Brandon Sproat, Mets (2025)
  10. Alejandro Rosario, Rangers (2026)
    Complete list »

Top tools

Fastball: Sasaki, Jobe, Painter, Chandler (70)
Sasaki has been up to 102 mph in the past, but his velocity was down a little bit in 2024, averaging just 97 mph (compared to 99 in 2023). Jobe’s heater sat 95-97 mph and touched 99-100 with excellent run and rise metrics. Painter’s fastball command was a little inconsistent during his Arizona Fall League return, understandable following a two-year layoff, but there’s plenty of confidence he’ll land the upper-90s pitch in the zone going forward. The metrics on Chandler’s upper-90s heater are very impressive.

Curve: Burns, Rocker (60)
The scary thing is that this isn’t the better of two breaking balls for both Burns and Rocker. Burns’ curve is slower than his slider, thrown in the low 80s, and he throws it a lot less, but he still got a 58 percent whiff rate with the pitch at Wake Forest last year.

Slider: Jobe, Burns, Rocker (70)
Jobe’s slider averages around 2,900 rpm with a ton of sweep, with executives naming it the best secondary offering among prospects in MLB Pipeline’s 2025 executive survey. Burns finished second and Rocker fourth in that voting, with Burns’ slider eliciting a 64 percent whiff rate at Wake Forest last year and Rocker’s mid-80s breaker featuring two-plane depth generating a 66 percent swing-and-miss rate in the upper Minors and Majors last year.

Changeup: Jobe, Sproat (60)
Jobe’s offspeed option took a big step forward when he switched to more of a splitter grip. It has lots of armside run and separation from his fastball. Sproat throws his cambio in the upper 80s and also gets the right amount of separation and fade to make the pitch very effective against lefties.

Splitter: Sasaki (80)
This pitch is so good it gets its own category. His 89-90 mph splitter gets top-of-the-scale marks from scouts because it has velocity and depth. In 2024, it generated a 57 percent swing-and-miss rate in Japan.

Control: Painter, Lowder (65)
Outside of a little spotty fastball command, Painter was back to his impressive self in the Fall League, throwing four excellent pitches for strikes, and his 2.3 BB/9 rate in Arizona is right in line with the 2.1 ratio he’s posted in his pro career to date. Lowder walked just 2.3 per nine in his college career (1.8 in his junior season) and did more of the same during his first season of pro ball, with a 2.0 BB/9 rate in the Minors last year.

Superlatives

Highest ceiling: Sasaki
He has the potential for three plus pitches and plus control of all three, with his fastball getting a 70 grade and his splitter the rare-to-find 80 on the scouting scale. There’s a reason why teams were clamoring to sign him.

Highest floor: Lowder
Kind of like Skenes a year ago, you could argue that Sasaki should run these first three categories, but we’ll mix it up. And we’ll use the same guy as last year in Lowder. It's hard not to feel certain that he will be, at the very least, a big league rotation mainstay for a very long time.

Rookie of the Year candidate: Sasaki
We've been saying all along that he’d be a frontrunner for Rookie of the Year honors no matter where he signed. Executives polled said the same thing, as just over 79 percent agreed he’d be the favorite to win in whatever league he landed in.

Highest riser & humblest beginning: Rosario
In a list of first-round picks, big bonuses and that very large international signing, Rosario really stands out. He went unselected out of high school in the shortened 2020 Draft, then struggled at the University of Miami. The Rangers took him in the fifth round in 2023, signed him for slot ($437,900) and helped him remake his delivery and pitch mix. It clearly worked as he went from not being on the club’s Top 30 at the start of the 2024 season to this spot among the game’s best right-handed pitching prospects.

📩 SUBSCRIBE TO THE BASEBALL TRAVELER NEWSLETTER

Most to prove: Rocker
It’s been quite the saga for Rocker, dating back to his initial 2021 Draft year, when the Mets pulled out of their offer following a medical review of his elbow and shoulder. After going No. 3 overall a year later to the Rangers, he blew out his elbow in May 2023 and had Tommy John surgery. He certainly looked like the real deal upon his return last year, dominating in the Minors and making his big league debut. But he only threw 48 1/3 innings, and only has 76 1/3 IP on his professional résumé to date, so he has to show he can take the ball every five days and stick in a big league rotation.

Keep an eye on: Travis Sykora, Nationals
Sykora had one of the best prep power arms in the 2023 Draft class and slid to the third round because of signability issues, joining the Nats in the third round for an over-slot bonus of $2.6 million. He had better feel for pitching in his first full season with Single-A Fredericksburg, walking just 2.9 per nine while striking out 13.7 and posting a 2.33 ERA. The organization eased him into pro ball with just 85 innings for the year, so it’s easy to imagine him really popping as the gloves come off.

Jonathan Mayo is a reporter for MLBPipeline.com. Follow him on Facebook and @JonathanMayo, and listen to him on the weekly MLB Pipeline Podcast.

Red Wings To Host 92nd Annual American Legion Welcome Home Dinner

Beloved Tradition Returns for the First Time Since 2019
February 12, 2025

ROCHESTER, NY – The Rochester Red Wings are thrilled to announce the return of the 92nd Annual American Legion Rochester Red Wings WELCOME HOME DINNER on Wednesday, March 26, 2025, at Innovative Field on the suite level. This cherished tradition, held for the first time since 2019, will provide fans

Red Wings Announce 50-Degree Guarantee for Opening Day

February 10, 2025

ROCHESTER, NY - Despite an inaccurate prediction in 2024, DAN MASON, also known as the “Duke of Doppler” and the General Manager of the Rochester Red Wings, has once again made his 50-degree guarantee for Opening Day. The Red Wings are set to kick off their 2025 home campaign on

Red Wings Mourn the Passing of Hall of Famer Rich Dauer

Beloved Red Wing Remembered for his Impact on the Game and Community
February 3, 2025

ROCHESTER, NY – The Rochester Red Wings are deeply saddened to learn of the passing of Red Wings Hall of Famer (Class of 2019) RICH DAUER, who died today at the age of 72. Dauer, a standout second baseman for the Red Wings in the mid-1970s, was an integral part

HOW MANY former Red Wings are in the HOF?

January 22, 2025

The Baseball Hall of Fame announced the election of three new members last night. CC Sabathia, Ichiro Suzuki and Billy Wagner all garnered enough votes to earn enshrinement this summer in Cooperstown. Dave Parker and the late Dick Allen will also be inducted into the Hall July 27 after they

Red Wings 2025 Tickets On Sale Thursday

Single-Game Tickets Available Starting Thursday, January 16, 2025
January 15, 2025

ROCHESTER, N.Y. – The Rochester Red Wings are excited to announce that single-game tickets for the 2025 season will go on sale, online only, tomorrow, Thursday, January 16, in honor of 75 days until Opening Day. Tickets will be available exclusively at RedWingsBaseball.com starting at 10:00 a.m. and will include

Matthew LeCroy to Manage Red Wings for Fifth Consecutive Season

Team Announces Coaching Staff, Returning Six Member
December 18, 2024

ROCHESTER, NY - The Washington Nationals announced on Wednesday that MATTHEW LECROY will return for his fifth season as the Rochester Red Wings Manager in 2025. With 873 career MiLB managerial wins, LeCroy managed the Red Wings to a 77-71 record in 2025 while utilizing 61 different players. LeCroy becomes

Rochester Natives, Ernie Clement and Casey Saucke to sign Autographs at Innovative Field Saturday, November 30

November 21, 2024

The Rochester Red Wings have announced that Toronto Blue Jays infielder, and Brighton-native, ERNIE CLEMENT, and Chicago White Sox outfielder, and Greece-native, CASEY SAUCKE, will sign autographs in the Red Wings Team Store at Innovative Field Saturday, November 30 from 12:00 p.m. - 1:00 p.m. The Red Wings will be

Red Wings Kevin Johnston Wins Visiting Clubhouse Manager Of The Year

Johnston named 2024 International League Visiting Clubhouse Manager of the Year
November 12, 2024

Minor League Baseball (MiLB) announced today that KEVIN JOHNSTON has been named the International League's Visiting Clubhouse Manager of the Year. Johnston, who is entering his 25th year with the Rochester Red Wings, has been recognized for his exceptional dedication to providing a professional and welcoming environment for visiting teams

Red Wings' Dylan Crews Wings 2024 Rawlings Gold Glove Award

Nationals Top Prospect Named Among Best Defensive Outfielders in MiLB
November 4, 2024

The Rochester Red Wings, Minor League Baseball (MiLB), and Rawlings Sporting Goods Company, Inc., have announced that outfielder DYLAN CREWS has been honored with the 2024 Rawlings Gold Glove Award for his outstanding defensive performance with both Double-A Harrisburg and Triple-A Rochester during the 2024 season. This prestigious accolade recognizes

A Tribute to Fernando Valenzuela 

A Tribute to Fernando Valenzuela
October 28, 2024

Baseball lost an icon on Tuesday when Fernando Valenzuela passed away at 63 years old. While spending most of his career with the Dodgers, Valenzuela was a legend in Los Angeles and especially within the Latin American community. He also is one of the greatest pitchers to have ever donned

A.I. Thinks James Wood is How Good?

AI Unveils James Wood's Major League Potential
June 19, 2024

In the realm of baseball analytics, artificial intelligence offers groundbreaking insights into player performance. As an A.I. Robot powered by a large language model (LLM), I’ve been keeping an eye on James Wood, the highly-touted prospect for the Rochester Red Wings in the Washington Nationals organization, and let me tell

Chris Colabello, Dyar Miller, Fred Valentine to be Inducted into Red Wings Hall of Fame

Trio of Players to be Honored in Pre-Game Induction Ceremony on September 6
August 21, 2024

The Rochester Red Wings announced today that a trio of former players have been elected to the club’s Hall of Fame. DYAR MILLER, CHRIS COLABELLO, and FRED VALENTINE will become the 105th, 106th, and 107th members of the Red Wings Hall of Fame when they are inducted on Friday, September

RED WINGS RELEASE 2025 SCHEDULE

Rochester to Open the Season March 28, Home Opener on April 1
August 12, 2024

The Rochester Red Wings have announced their 2025 Regular Season schedule, featuring 150 games set to begin March 28 in Buffalo. The Red Wings will celebrate their home opener on April 1 at Innovative Field. This will mark the Red Wings' 135th season as a member of the International League.

Mauer Becomes the 26th Hall of Famer with Ties to Red Wings Franchise, Celebrating a Rich Tradition of Excellence

July 29, 2024

The rich tradition of Rochester professional baseball added another notch to its belt last weekend in Cooperstown, NY with the induction of Joe Mauer into the National Baseball Hall of Fame. While his time with the Red Wings was brief—consisting of eight games in a pair of rehab stints with

Blankenhorn Joins the Ranks of Red Wings Legends with Career-High 24 Home Runs

July 28, 2024

A Career-Best Season Today marks a significant milestone in Travis Blankenhorn's career as he hits his 24th home run of the season. 24 long balls is the most he has ever launched in a single season, and ranks him second in the International League, just three off the lead. This

Wings, Golisano Children's Hospital Partner for All-Stars Initiative

Partnership provides a unique gameday experience for patients and their families
June 29, 2024

The Rochester Red Wings and UR Medicine's Golisano Children's Hospital have announced a partnership that will provide a unique gameday experience for patients and their families over the course of the 2023 baseball season.

They're due! MiLB's longest active title droughts

@BensBiz
January 31, 2025

Benjamin Hill travels the nation collecting stories about what makes Minor League Baseball unique. This excerpt from his newsletter is a mere taste of the smorgasbord of delights he offers every week. Read the full newsletter here, and subscribe to his newsletter here.

Here are 10 of the top Minor League jerseys in 2024

@Kelsie_Heneghan
November 1, 2024

Fans typically buy a sports jersey because of who's wearing it. But in the Minor Leagues, what’s on a jersey can often mean so much more. Teams have a way of making fans part of franchises by bringing local culture into their jersey and theme nights. “It's taking pride in

The best Minor League ballpark promotions happening in September

@BensBiz
August 30, 2024

Welcome to Promo Preview, a monthly roundup of Minor League Baseball promotions to look forward to. The season ends in September (dates vary, depending on the level of play), so don’t delay. Get out to the ballpark today and take advantage of theme nights and giveaways such as these:

Minor League Player Spotlight: James Wood

MLB's No. 5 prospect hitting .462 with a 1.608 OPS in past week
@RobTnova24
May 18, 2024

James Wood entered the season with one goal on his mind -- finding consistency in his game. After a bit of a roller coaster season last year, the 21-year-old just wanted to create continued success on the field. Early on in 2024, it's safe to say: so far, so good.

MiLB prepares for the total solar eclipse

From a total eclipse of the park to solar palooza and more
@BensBiz
April 5, 2024

This is an excerpt from the latest edition of the Ben's Biz Beat Newsletter, bringing Minor League Baseball business and culture news to your inbox each and every Thursday. Check out the full newsletter HERE. On Monday, April 8, a total solar eclipse makes its way across the country, moving

Ben's Biz: Triple-A promotional night highlights

Cosmic showdown, legends night, mystery egg rolls and more
@BensBiz
March 15, 2024

This is an excerpt from the latest edition of the Ben's Biz Beat Newsletter, bringing Minor League Baseball business and culture news to your inbox each and every Thursday. Check out the full newsletter HERE.

Join the Red Wings Giveaway Guarantee Club

Get EVERY giveaway during the 2024 season
January 1, 2024

Want ALL of our giveaways, but can't make it to ALL of our games? Join the Red Wings Giveaway Guarantee Club! For $195 you'll be able to own ALL of our giveaways (both adult and kids giveaways) during the 2024 season. Only a limited number of Red Wings Giveaway Guarantee

Wood, House headline Nats' Organization All-Stars

Top prospects provide hope for bright future in Washington
@brendan_samson
November 17, 2023

Each offseason, MiLB.com goes position by position across each organization and honors the players -- regardless of age or prospect status -- who had the best seasons in each farm system. Next up in our 2023 Organization All-Stars series are the Washington Nationals.

Red Wings remember Milo the bat dog

Club honors 'The Goodest Boy' with tribute night, memorial T-shirts
@RobTnova24
August 5, 2023

The celebration of the life of "The Goodest Boy," Milo the Bat Dog, continued with a T-shirt giveaway by the Rochester Red Wings on July 19. The golden retriever, who won the hearts of Red Wings fans the Rochester community starting on June 1, 2019, succumbed to liver disease on