Taking a dip into prospects' BABIP numbers

Last time we got into more advanced stats here on MiLB.com, we discussed FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) and its implications for evaluating the 2014 seasons for top pitching prospects. Now we turn to a tool that helps us look at a stat that applies to both hitters and pitchers -- Batting Average on Balls in Play, or put much more simply BABIP.

When it comes down to it, BABIP is a fairly simple stat as far as baseball metrics go. In case you didn't gather it from the name, BABIP measures the amount of balls put in play that fall in for hits. Home runs aren't technically in play, so they're subtracted from the measurement, as are strikeouts. Sacrifice flies are added back in because they're not usually counted as an official at-bat, but they are indeed in play, for the sake of the BABIP measurement. This is what the BABIP equation ends up looking like:

BABIP=(Hits - home runs)/(at-bats - strikeouts - home runs + sac flies) or BABIP=(H-HR)/(AB-K-HR+SF)

Though BABIP is simple to measure, that doesn't necessarily make it simple to understand. Typically, people use BABIP to understand just how lucky or unlucky a particular batter or pitcher is. That is to say, the average BABIP is typically around .300, so anything much higher than that is seen as lucky for hitters (to some extent) or unlucky for pitchers (to a great extent). Balls that would normally go for outs are just squeaking by the infield or falling just out of reach for the outfield, resulting in hits that bring a higher average and BABIP.

But it's so much more than that, especially for hitters. Tremendous speed can give a player's BABIP a significant boost. Just think about those who beat out infield dribblers for hits with some regularity. There's also just plain ole talent level. If a player can consistently hit line drives, he'll have a higher BABIP. Case in point, two-time MVP and 2012 Triple Crown winner Miguel Cabrera has a career .346 BABIP, and no one would consider calling him, ahem, speedy (or lucky).

Instead when it comes to hitters in particular, BABIP should be used much more like its batting average cousin. It provides context for evaluating performance, but it is by no means a be-all, end-all stat.

When it comes to pitchers, who typically have much less effect on where a ball ends up in play, BABIP can indeed be used a little more as a tool for determining fortune and whether a particular statline is sustainable or not.

Below, we'll look at some of the highest and lowest BABIPs put up by top-100 prospects during the 2014 season, but be sure to check out these two tables to see a complete BABIP breakdown.

Hitters

Holy... Oh my... What the...

Those are just some of the instant reactions one could have when looking at Seager's BABIP last season between Class A Advanced Rancho Cucamonga and Double-A Chattanooga. (There are several other four-letter words that you may have used that we here are at MiLB.com, being a family-friendly site, are not allowed to print.) A BABIP above .400 simply isn't common -- the last Major Leaguer to put up such a number was Brewers shortstop Jose Hernandez (.404) in 2002 -- and though we have five such figures above, Seager's figure jumps out as the most eye-popping. Byron Buxton, who is both quite quick and is by all measures a very good hitter, led top prospects with a .403 BABIP in 2013 that still sits 20 points below Seager's 2014 stat. 

So was the Dodgers shortstop prodigy good or simply lucky? The answer, of course, is a bit of both.

First things first, we know Seager can smack the ball around the yard. He led the entire Minors with 50 doubles in 2014, and the fact that a significant amount of those two-baggers didn't leave the yard for homers, and thus take away from hits considered balls in play, boosted his BABIP a lot. (It should be noted he still hit 20 home runs.) Hitting to the gaps is a skill, and one Seager, who otherwise isn't exactly fleet-of-foot, has in spades.

That being said, a .423 BABIP is such an outlier that you have to believe luck was somewhat of a factor in driving up that BABIP. His number in 38 Double-A contests was an absurd .450, if you can believe that. We're not taking away from his .349 season average. We're just saying take it with a grain or two of salt, that's all.

A couple of quick notes on the other names above: Trea Turner (75 speed grade from MLB.com) and Michael Taylor (60 grade, 37 steals) are both speedsters who can also put the bat squarely on the ball, making them both high BABIP candidates year in and year out. Domingo Santana, who notably struggled in the Majors, has a career .376 BABIP in the Minors, thanks to consistent loud contact, so his 2014 number isn't as much of an outlier as you'd expect at first blush. If you've read this site before, you know Kris Bryant hits the ball all over the park, and his inclusion here should serve as no surprise. 

Another thing to consider: these are all players who struck out fairly often (i.e. in more than 20 percent of their at-bats) in 2014. When they swung, they swung to make hard contact. Sometimes, that results in screamers past fielders. Other times, it ended in a "K." Either way, the result was a high BABIP. 

Nothing quite as crazy an outlier as Seager's numbers here, but there is plenty to ponder. Hedges' value is and always has been as a defense-first catcher, and his 2014 average and BABIP won't do much to change that. Playing as a 21-year-old in his first full season at Double-A San Antonio, the backstop didn't exactly make loud contact (27 extra-base hits, .096 ISO) against Texas League opposition, and with little speed, it's easy to see why so many balls ended up in opponents' gloves. Hope remains that his arm and receiving skills cary him forward in the Padres system.

The Royals have been aggressive in their placement of the 19-year-old Mondesi in each of the past three seasons, and though he passed his first tests at Rookie-level Idaho Falls in 2012 and Class A Lexington in 2013, the same couldn't be said of his performance at Class A Advanced Wilmington last season. Unlike Hedges, it seems like bad luck may have been some factor in keeping Mondesi's BABIP so low, as he was better at making solid contact (.143 ISO) and is speedier than the catcher. In other words, it wasn't a banner season for the promising shortstop, but his .211 average was likely lower than it should have been. It'll be interesting to see if the Royals allow him to get some success back in the Carolina League in 2015 or push him up to Double-A. 

Franco's numbers were notably rough through April, May and June (.209 average, .234 BABIP) at Triple-A Lehigh Valley, but they took a nice correction in the final two months of the season (.324 average, .335 BABIP) as he adjusted to the Minors' top level. Though his overall numbers aren't entirely rosy, it's those ones at the back end that give the Phillies hope that the slugger could supplant Ryan Howard at first base sometime in 2015.

Though they are low enough to appear here, McGuire and Olson's BABIPs aren't anything to be too concerned about. (Remember, the pool for this consists of top-100 prospects, who are all fairly good at what they do.) Olson, in particular, could see a BABIP increase in 2015 as he leaves the hitter-happy California League, where he struck 37 homers. A significant amount of those will likely fall for doubles in the Texas League next season, thus giving the BABIP a bump.

Pitchers

This group represents two different ways of looking at BABIP when it comes to pitchers. There's the idea that pitchers can do little to control what happens to a ball once it's struck, which would point to the idea that their BABIP-against only shows how lucky they were or how good the defense behind them was. There's also the counterpoint that certain pitchers do a better job of pitching to certain types of contact (e.g. flyballs that have a better chance of being caught) and therefore lead to smaller BABIPs. Again, this requires more of a case-by-case, rather than catch-all approach. 

Edwards, who was limited to only 53 2/3 innings by shoulder issues, certainly had such a low ERA in part because of his low BABIP, but there are other indications that he helped the stat get so low. With an above-average fastball and curveball, we know he has the stuff to keep hitters off-balance, leading to weak contact, and with an about-equal groundout-to-airout ratio, we know he puts the ball in the air plenty. With only one of those balls leaving the yard for a home run, it's not a huge surprise to learn a large majority of those flyballs ended up in his defenders' gloves. What's more, this is becoming the norm for the Cubs right-hander, who put up a .286 BABIP-against in his breakout 2013 season and a .225 BABIP-against in 2012.

Glasnow has a similar case. By many measures, he had a great 2014, and a .258 BABIP should do nothing to take away from that. Perhaps his 1.74 ERA was a just a little lower than it should have been, but after also putting up a .217 BABIP-against in 2013, it's gotten to the point where we might expect low BABIPs going forward from the 6-foot-7 hurler, whose electric stuff results in weak flyballs when it doesn't ring up opposing hitters. In the same vein, Giolito's low BABIP indicates that his 2.20 ERA could have very well been higher, if not for good defense/luck, but it's not a cause for concern going forward given his powerful profile. (Chris Young and Matt Cain, fly-ball pitchers who have spent a lot of time in pitchers' parks, have been able to pitch to low BABIPs, .251 and .264 respectively, throughout their careers, and perhaps Glasnow and Giolito will follow down the same road.)

Where worries abound are in the numbers for Kaminsky and Ranaudo. Kaminsky, pitching in his first full season since being taken 28th overall by the Cardinals in 2013 (and featured in a recent Q&A with Kelsie Heneghan), couldn't have put up an incredibly low 1.88 ERA if not for some help from his fellow Class A Peoria Chiefs. He kept the ball mostly on the ground with a 1.44 groundout-to-airout ratio and struck out only 7.1 per nine frames. The 20-year-old southpaw has a promising career ahead of him, but his 2014 standard numbers are probably as good as it'll get for him going forward.

As for Ranaudo -- the newest Rangers addition -- we showed in our FIP feature how his peripherals (3.61 FIP, 7.2 K/9) indicate that his 2014 wasn't quite as good as his ERA alone would imply. But just another quick note on the 6-foot-7 right-hander: despite putting up a 4.81 ERA in 39 1/3 innings, his Major League BABIP was just .225. Why so low you ask? He allowed 10 homers in that same span.

We covered how Syndergaard's season was much better than ERA would indicate in the FIP article, so let this .382 BABIP serve as a reminder that the Mets right-hander deserved a much better 2014 season by standard statistics. That's especially true when you consider that the .382 mark is well above his 2013 (.322) and 2012 (.299) marks. 

Appel, on the other hand, still wasn't great by FIP standards, and although the .368 BABIP indicates that perhaps a few too many hits squeaked through and that his ERA shouldn't have been that close to 7, it's not enough to be used as a full paron for the Astros right-hander. For what it's worth, Appel had a perfectly average .300 BABIP-against in seven games at Double-A Corpus Christi, where he owned a much-improved 3.69 ERA across 39 innnings. 

BABIP is a big help to our perception of Feliz, who was added to the Astros' 40-man roster this offseason. He struck out 9.7 batters per nine innings and walked 3.2 over the same frame but still had a mediocre 4.03 ERA. His .351 BABIP-against is an indication that he was a bit unlucky when it came to the defense behind him, so that ERA likely should have been lower. His 3.29 FIP leads to the same conclusion. 

With only 111 strikeouts in 134 innings between Double-A Harrisburg and Triple-A Syracuse, Cole relied on his defense to pick him up, and as shown by a .332 BABIP, that didn't happen to any great effect. The only reason his ERA wasn't even higher -- which his 3.59 FIP indicated it should have been -- was because he left more than 70.1 and 76.6 percent of opposing baserunners on the basepaths at Harrisburg and Syracuse, respectively. The same can be said of Crick, who walked plenty of batters and was hurt by a .326 BABIP. His 3.79 ERA could have been higher if not for a 75.3 left-on-base rate.