Taking a dip into prospects' BABIP numbers
Last time we got into more advanced stats here on MiLB.com, we discussed FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) and its implications for evaluating the 2014 seasons for top pitching prospects. Now we turn to a tool that helps us look at a stat that applies to both hitters and pitchers -- Batting Average on Balls in Play, or put much more simply BABIP.
When it comes down to it, BABIP is a fairly simple stat as far as baseball metrics go. In case you didn't gather it from the name, BABIP measures the amount of balls put in play that fall in for hits. Home runs aren't technically in play, so they're subtracted from the measurement, as are strikeouts. Sacrifice flies are added back in because they're not usually counted as an official at-bat, but they are indeed in play, for the sake of the BABIP measurement. This is what the BABIP equation ends up looking like:
BABIP=(Hits - home runs)/(at-bats - strikeouts - home runs + sac flies) or BABIP=(H-HR)/(AB-K-HR+SF)
Though BABIP is simple to measure, that doesn't necessarily make it simple to understand. Typically, people use BABIP to understand just how lucky or unlucky a particular batter or pitcher is. That is to say, the average BABIP is typically around .300, so anything much higher than that is seen as lucky for hitters (to some extent) or unlucky for pitchers (to a great extent). Balls that would normally go for outs are just squeaking by the infield or falling just out of reach for the outfield, resulting in hits that bring a higher average and BABIP.
But it's so much more than that, especially for hitters. Tremendous speed can give a player's BABIP a significant boost. Just think about those who beat out infield dribblers for hits with some regularity. There's also just plain ole talent level. If a player can consistently hit line drives, he'll have a higher BABIP. Case in point, two-time MVP and 2012 Triple Crown winner Miguel Cabrera has a career .346 BABIP, and no one would consider calling him, ahem, speedy (or lucky).
Instead when it comes to hitters in particular, BABIP should be used much more like its batting average cousin. It provides context for evaluating performance, but it is by no means a be-all, end-all stat.
When it comes to pitchers, who typically have much less effect on where a ball ends up in play, BABIP can indeed be used a little more as a tool for determining fortune and whether a particular statline is sustainable or not.
Below, we'll look at some of the highest and lowest BABIPs put up by top-100 prospects during the 2014 season, but be sure to check out these two tables to see a complete BABIP breakdown.
Hitters
HIGHEST BABIPs for Batters among MLB.com's Top 100 Prospects
MLB.COM RANK | NAME | G | AB | H | HR | K | SF | AVG | BABIP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
13 | Corey Seager | 118 | 475 | 166 | 20 | 115 | 5 | .349 | .423 |
96 | Trea Turner | 69 | 279 | 90 | 5 | 67 | 1 | .323 | .409 |
65 | Michael Taylor | 110 | 428 | 130 | 23 | 144 | 1 | .304 | .408 |
50 | Domingo Santana | 120 | 443 | 131 | 16 | 149 | 4 | .296 | .408 |
3 | Kris Bryant | 138 | 492 | 160 | 43 | 162 | 2 | .325 | .405 |
Holy... Oh my... What the...
Those are just some of the instant reactions one could have when looking at Seager's BABIP last season between Class A Advanced Rancho Cucamonga and Double-A Chattanooga. (There are several other four-letter words that you may have used that we here are at MiLB.com, being a family-friendly site, are not allowed to print.) A BABIP above .400 simply isn't common -- the last Major Leaguer to put up such a number was Brewers shortstop Jose Hernandez (.404) in 2002 -- and though we have five such figures above, Seager's figure jumps out as the most eye-popping. Byron Buxton, who is both quite quick and is by all measures a very good hitter, led top prospects with a .403 BABIP in 2013 that still sits 20 points below Seager's 2014 stat.
So was the Dodgers shortstop prodigy good or simply lucky? The answer, of course, is a bit of both.
First things first, we know Seager can smack the ball around the yard. He led the entire Minors with 50 doubles in 2014, and the fact that a significant amount of those two-baggers didn't leave the yard for homers, and thus take away from hits considered balls in play, boosted his BABIP a lot. (It should be noted he still hit 20 home runs.) Hitting to the gaps is a skill, and one Seager, who otherwise isn't exactly fleet-of-foot, has in spades.
That being said, a .423 BABIP is such an outlier that you have to believe luck was somewhat of a factor in driving up that BABIP. His number in 38 Double-A contests was an absurd .450, if you can believe that. We're not taking away from his .349 season average. We're just saying take it with a grain or two of salt, that's all.
A couple of quick notes on the other names above: Trea Turner (75 speed grade from MLB.com) and Michael Taylor (60 grade, 37 steals) are both speedsters who can also put the bat squarely on the ball, making them both high BABIP candidates year in and year out. Domingo Santana, who notably struggled in the Majors, has a career .376 BABIP in the Minors, thanks to consistent loud contact, so his 2014 number isn't as much of an outlier as you'd expect at first blush. If you've read this site before, you know Kris Bryant hits the ball all over the park, and his inclusion here should serve as no surprise.
Another thing to consider: these are all players who struck out fairly often (i.e. in more than 20 percent of their at-bats) in 2014. When they swung, they swung to make hard contact. Sometimes, that results in screamers past fielders. Other times, it ended in a "K." Either way, the result was a high BABIP.
Lowest BABIPs for Batters among MLB.com's Top 100 Prospects
RANK | NAME | G | AB | H | HR | K | SF | AVG | BABIP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
22 | Austin Hedges | 113 | 427 | 96 | 6 | 89 | 2 | .225 | .269 |
38 | Raul Mondesi | 110 | 435 | 92 | 8 | 122 | 2 | .211 | .274 |
54 | Maikel Franco | 133 | 521 | 134 | 16 | 81 | 3 | .257 | .276 |
74 | Reese McGuire | 98 | 389 | 102 | 3 | 44 | 6 | .262 | .284 |
98 | Matt Olson | 138 | 512 | 134 | 37 | 137 | 0 | .262 | .287 |
Nothing quite as crazy an outlier as Seager's numbers here, but there is plenty to ponder. Hedges' value is and always has been as a defense-first catcher, and his 2014 average and BABIP won't do much to change that. Playing as a 21-year-old in his first full season at Double-A San Antonio, the backstop didn't exactly make loud contact (27 extra-base hits, .096 ISO) against Texas League opposition, and with little speed, it's easy to see why so many balls ended up in opponents' gloves. Hope remains that his arm and receiving skills cary him forward in the Padres system.
The Royals have been aggressive in their placement of the 19-year-old Mondesi in each of the past three seasons, and though he passed his first tests at Rookie-level Idaho Falls in 2012 and Class A Lexington in 2013, the same couldn't be said of his performance at Class A Advanced Wilmington last season. Unlike Hedges, it seems like bad luck may have been some factor in keeping Mondesi's BABIP so low, as he was better at making solid contact (.143 ISO) and is speedier than the catcher. In other words, it wasn't a banner season for the promising shortstop, but his .211 average was likely lower than it should have been. It'll be interesting to see if the Royals allow him to get some success back in the Carolina League in 2015 or push him up to Double-A.
Franco's numbers were notably rough through April, May and June (.209 average, .234 BABIP) at Triple-A Lehigh Valley, but they took a nice correction in the final two months of the season (.324 average, .335 BABIP) as he adjusted to the Minors' top level. Though his overall numbers aren't entirely rosy, it's those ones at the back end that give the Phillies hope that the slugger could supplant Ryan Howard at first base sometime in 2015.
Though they are low enough to appear here, McGuire and Olson's BABIPs aren't anything to be too concerned about. (Remember, the pool for this consists of top-100 prospects, who are all fairly good at what they do.) Olson, in particular, could see a BABIP increase in 2015 as he leaves the hitter-happy California League, where he struck 37 homers. A significant amount of those will likely fall for doubles in the Texas League next season, thus giving the BABIP a bump.
Pitchers
Lowest Babips for Pitchers among MLB.com's Top 100 Prospects
RANK | NAME | IP | H | K | BB | HR | ERA | BABIP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
53 | C.J. Edwards | 53 2/3 | 32 | 54 | 25 | 1 | 2.35 | .235 |
94 | Rob Kaminsky | 100 2/3 | 71 | 79 | 31 | 2 | 1.88 | .240 |
16 | Tyler Glasnow | 124 1/3 | 74 | 157 | 57 | 3 | 1.74 | .258 |
8 | Lucas Giolito | 98 | 70 | 110 | 28 | 7 | 2.20 | .263 |
75 | Anthony Ranaudo | 138 | 112 | 111 | 54 | 4 | 2.61 | .264 |
This group represents two different ways of looking at BABIP when it comes to pitchers. There's the idea that pitchers can do little to control what happens to a ball once it's struck, which would point to the idea that their BABIP-against only shows how lucky they were or how good the defense behind them was. There's also the counterpoint that certain pitchers do a better job of pitching to certain types of contact (e.g. flyballs that have a better chance of being caught) and therefore lead to smaller BABIPs. Again, this requires more of a case-by-case, rather than catch-all approach.
Edwards, who was limited to only 53 2/3 innings by shoulder issues, certainly had such a low ERA in part because of his low BABIP, but there are other indications that he helped the stat get so low. With an above-average fastball and curveball, we know he has the stuff to keep hitters off-balance, leading to weak contact, and with an about-equal groundout-to-airout ratio, we know he puts the ball in the air plenty. With only one of those balls leaving the yard for a home run, it's not a huge surprise to learn a large majority of those flyballs ended up in his defenders' gloves. What's more, this is becoming the norm for the Cubs right-hander, who put up a .286 BABIP-against in his breakout 2013 season and a .225 BABIP-against in 2012.
Glasnow has a similar case. By many measures, he had a great 2014, and a .258 BABIP should do nothing to take away from that. Perhaps his 1.74 ERA was a just a little lower than it should have been, but after also putting up a .217 BABIP-against in 2013, it's gotten to the point where we might expect low BABIPs going forward from the 6-foot-7 hurler, whose electric stuff results in weak flyballs when it doesn't ring up opposing hitters. In the same vein, Giolito's low BABIP indicates that his 2.20 ERA could have very well been higher, if not for good defense/luck, but it's not a cause for concern going forward given his powerful profile. (Chris Young and Matt Cain, fly-ball pitchers who have spent a lot of time in pitchers' parks, have been able to pitch to low BABIPs, .251 and .264 respectively, throughout their careers, and perhaps Glasnow and Giolito will follow down the same road.)
Where worries abound are in the numbers for Kaminsky and Ranaudo. Kaminsky, pitching in his first full season since being taken 28th overall by the Cardinals in 2013 (and featured in a recent Q&A with Kelsie Heneghan), couldn't have put up an incredibly low 1.88 ERA if not for some help from his fellow Class A Peoria Chiefs. He kept the ball mostly on the ground with a 1.44 groundout-to-airout ratio and struck out only 7.1 per nine frames. The 20-year-old southpaw has a promising career ahead of him, but his 2014 standard numbers are probably as good as it'll get for him going forward.
As for Ranaudo -- the newest Rangers addition -- we showed in our FIP feature how his peripherals (3.61 FIP, 7.2 K/9) indicate that his 2014 wasn't quite as good as his ERA alone would imply. But just another quick note on the 6-foot-7 right-hander: despite putting up a 4.81 ERA in 39 1/3 innings, his Major League BABIP was just .225. Why so low you ask? He allowed 10 homers in that same span.
Highest Babips for Pitchers among MLB.com's Top 100 Prospects
RANK | NAME | IP | H | K | BB | HR | ERA | BABIP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10 | Noah Syndergaard | 133 | 154 | 145 | 43 | 11 | 4.60 | .382 |
41 | Mark Appel | 83 1/3 | 109 | 78 | 24 | 11 | 6.91 | .368 |
92 | Michael Feliz | 102 2/3 | 104 | 111 | 37 | 6 | 4.03 | .351 |
56 | A.J. Cole | 134 | 148 | 111 | 32 | 10 | 3.16 | .332 |
46 | Kyle Crick | 90 1/3 | 78 | 111 | 61 | 7 | 3.79 | .329 |
We covered how Syndergaard's season was much better than ERA would indicate in the FIP article, so let this .382 BABIP serve as a reminder that the Mets right-hander deserved a much better 2014 season by standard statistics. That's especially true when you consider that the .382 mark is well above his 2013 (.322) and 2012 (.299) marks.
Appel, on the other hand, still wasn't great by FIP standards, and although the .368 BABIP indicates that perhaps a few too many hits squeaked through and that his ERA shouldn't have been that close to 7, it's not enough to be used as a full paron for the Astros right-hander. For what it's worth, Appel had a perfectly average .300 BABIP-against in seven games at Double-A Corpus Christi, where he owned a much-improved 3.69 ERA across 39 innnings.
BABIP is a big help to our perception of Feliz, who was added to the Astros' 40-man roster this offseason. He struck out 9.7 batters per nine innings and walked 3.2 over the same frame but still had a mediocre 4.03 ERA. His .351 BABIP-against is an indication that he was a bit unlucky when it came to the defense behind him, so that ERA likely should have been lower. His 3.29 FIP leads to the same conclusion.
With only 111 strikeouts in 134 innings between Double-A Harrisburg and Triple-A Syracuse, Cole relied on his defense to pick him up, and as shown by a .332 BABIP, that didn't happen to any great effect. The only reason his ERA wasn't even higher -- which his 3.59 FIP indicated it should have been -- was because he left more than 70.1 and 76.6 percent of opposing baserunners on the basepaths at Harrisburg and Syracuse, respectively. The same can be said of Crick, who walked plenty of batters and was hurt by a .326 BABIP. His 3.79 ERA could have been higher if not for a 75.3 left-on-base rate.
Sam Dykstra is a contributor to MiLB.com. Follow and interact with him on Twitter, @SamDykstraMiLB..
These 15 moments led to season No. 15 of Minor League road trips
Benjamin Hill travels the nation collecting stories about what makes Minor League Baseball unique. This excerpt from his newsletter is a mere taste of the smorgasbord of delights he offers every week. Read the full newsletter here, and subscribe to his newsletter here.
MiLB podcast crew makes Opening Day predictions
Check out the latest episodes of The Show Before the Show, MiLB.com's official podcast. A segment rundown is listed below, in case you want to skip to a particular section. Like the podcast? Subscribe, rate and review on Apple Podcasts. The podcast is also available via Spotify, Megaphone and other
Everything you need to know for Triple-A Opening Day
First, there was big league Opening Day. Now it's Triple-A's turn to take the spotlight. The Minor League season opens Friday when the Triple-A International League and Pacific Coast League seasons get underway for the first of MiLB’s two Opening Days. And right out of the gates, several of baseball's
Top prospects to watch at Triple-A -- one for each organization
It’s Triple-A’s turn up to bat on Friday. The regular season begins for the Minor Leagues’ highest level one day after the action starts on the Major League side. Fun fact: it’ll be the earliest start to a Minor League season since 1951 (March 27). Double-A, High-A and Single-A will
Here's where every Top 100 prospect is expected to start the season
The 2025 Opening Day prospect roster announcements began last week when the Cubs informed Matt Shaw (MLB No. 19) he was making the trip overseas to compete in the Tokyo Series. Roki Sasaki (No. 1) also received the good news, but his assignment was much less of a surprise. Now
Nationals prospect King joins MiLB podcast
Check out the latest episodes of The Show Before the Show, MiLB.com's official podcast. A segment rundown is listed below, in case you want to skip to a particular section. Like the podcast? Subscribe, rate and review on Apple Podcasts. The podcast is also available via Spotify, Megaphone and other
Here are the 2025 All-Spring Breakout Teams
Fifteen games, several jersey swaps and countless highlights later, the second edition of Spring Breakout has officially concluded – and it lived up to its billing. Of the 16 contests sprinkled across four days, only one game (Dodgers vs. Cubs) was rained out. Coincidentally, the Cubs were one of two
Rox young sluggers aim to bring pop back to Coors Field
SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. -- Coors Field may provide the best run-scoring environment in Major League Baseball, but the Rockies haven’t taken advantage of it in recent years. Even without adjusting for Coors, they have fielded offenses worse than the league average the past three seasons, and they scored the fewest runs
Astros brass sees potential in consistently 'underranked' farm system
WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. -- The last time the Astros landed in the top 10 of MLB Pipeline’s farm system rankings was before the 2019 season. Since those rankings expanded to all 30 teams ahead of the 2020 season -- 11 lists in total -- they’ve never ranked higher than
Complete results and highlights from Spring Breakout
The second edition of MLB Spring Breakout is complete, and there was no shortage of highlights from the future stars of Major League Baseball over the four-day showcase. Here's a complete breakdown of the 16-game exhibition:
Southpaw Spring Breakout: White Sox future on display with Schultz, Smith
GLENDALE, Ariz. -- If all goes as planned for the White Sox, left-handers Hagen Smith and Noah Schultz won’t spend much time following each other to the mound in a single game. Schultz, the No. 1 White Sox prospect and No. 16 overall, per MLB Pipeline, and Smith, who is
In first pro game, Rainer offers pop, promise to Tigers fans
NORTH PORT, Fla. -- Bryce Rainer’s pro career consisted of workouts and batting practice until Sunday.
'Me and Brady on the dirt again': House, King reunite at Spring Breakout
WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. -- The 2025 Spring Breakout was a flashback for Brady House and Seaver King. Over 10 years ago, the infielders were travel ball teammates in Georgia who shared the dream of making it to the Major Leagues. Now, they are top prospects in the same organization,
Lambert -- 'an adrenaline guy' -- hoping to be next Mets bullpen gem
WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. -- Ryan Lambert loves throwing hard. He relishes the idea of getting to two strikes and blowing hitters away. “Get me in a game,” Lambert said, “cool things will happen.”
Stewart embraces Spring Breakout: 'What's not to love?'
PHOENIX -- Sal Stewart was one fired-up Reds prospect. On Sunday in the first inning during the organization's 9-7 Spring Breakout win over Brewers prospects, Stewart lifted a 2-2 pitch that sailed over the center fielder's head to the wall. Already not known as a speedster, he stumbled running between
Prospect Peña quietly drawing raves in Brewers' farm system
PHOENIX – Jesús Made was at the top of the Brewers’ lineup for Sunday’s 9-7 loss to the Reds in the finale of MLB’s four-day Spring Breakout, a fitting perch when you consider that the 17-year-old infielder is under a bright spotlight as MLB Pipeline’s No. 55 prospect. Made could
Brecht -- in 1st outing since '24 Draft -- wows at Spring Breakout
GLENDALE, Ariz. -- Sunday's Spring Breakout showcase was the perfect unveiling for Rockies No. 5 prospect Brody Brecht. A right-handed pitcher from the University of Iowa whom the Rockies selected 38th overall last summer, Brecht had a nice collegiate resume, an interesting backstory as a former wide receiver for the
Braves prospects show promise in Spring Breakout
NORTH PORT, Fla. -- As Terry Pendleton prepared to serve as the manager of the Braves prospect team that played the Tigers prospect team in a Spring Breakout game on Sunday afternoon, he said fans should be patient with John Gil and Luis Guanipa, a pair of teenagers who have
Yanks' Lagrange flashes triple-digit heat in Spring Breakout
SARASOTA, Fla. -- There was an audible “Ooh” from the crowd at Ed Smith Stadium, and Carlos Lagrange quickly glanced beyond the right-field wall, checking the velocity of the pitch he’d just thrown in Saturday’s 5-4 Spring Breakout loss to the Orioles. It had registered in the triple digits, and
Bradfield dedicates Spring Breakout performance to late friend
SARASOTA, Fla. -- It was about more than playing in the national spotlight. More than the dinner bet placed with an old college teammate earlier in the month. More than a game. As Enrique Bradfield Jr. slid home to score a run during the first inning of Saturday night’s Spring