Toolshed: Pitching Ohtani on the farms
Shohei Ohtani will be a prospect. Technically. That's not something that can usually be said about the offseason's biggest free agent, but this is no usual situation. The 23-year-old is considered an international amateur signee despite the fact he's played five seasons in Japan's Pacific League. International amateur signees are considered
Shohei Ohtani will be a prospect. Technically.
That's not something that can usually be said about the offseason's biggest free agent, but this is no usual situation. The 23-year-old is considered an international amateur signee despite the fact he's played five seasons in Japan's Pacific League. International amateur signees are considered prospects by MLB.com, and it's no surprise that the right-handed pitcher/outfielder vaulted to the top spot in the international rankings with a 70 overall grade as a pitcher on the 20-80 scouting scale and a 60 as a hitter.
All of that means his signing will come under the international prospect signing pool limits put forth by the latest collective bargaining agreement, thus severely limiting what he could make as compared to the open market. Major League Baseball, the Major League Baseball Players Association and Japan's Nippon Professional Baseball came to an agreement on a new posting system as well.
All of those hurdles have been cleared, and on Friday, Ohtani was officially posted, giving teams three weeks to sign him using whatever they have left in the international coffers. As part of the recruitment drive, the right-hander asked teams to fill out questionnaires and provide presentations. Over the weekend, he started dwindling his list to seven reported clubs, all of which will have meetings with the Japanese talent before his signing deadline on Dec. 22. Those seven clubs include the Cubs, Angels, Dodgers, Giants, Padres, Mariners and Rangers. Ohtani is said to prefer a smaller market and a team closer to the West Coast to make travel easier back to Japan.
These organizations are vying to sign Ohtani for what could be the next six years as he'll enter Major League Baseball under the standard rookie contract. Part of their presentations are likely to include the long-term futures of their big league offerings, and what better way to show long-term planning than talk about a farm system. Below is a breakdown of what each of the seven clubs could pitch to Ohtani about their prospects, systems as a whole and ability to develop young talent.
Chicago Cubs
Money available to Ohtani: $300,000
Pros: The Cubs are on the short list of organizations that have best developed young talent. The Major League club's young core of
Cons: This is not the Cubs' farm system of old. As good as those mentioned have become, there is no Top-100 prospect here. Happ might be the last graduated Cub to earn that distinction for a while and mostly trades have left the cupboard barren.
Overview: Chicago is definitely in win-now mode, and that's probably gotten them this far with Ohtani. They just won't tell him to look behind the curtain or in the backfields this spring.
Los Angeles Angels
Money available to Ohtani: $1.315 million
Pros: The Angels system's fortunes have changed. Once the laughingstock of the Minors, the Halos have particular depth in the outfield, starting with 2017 10th overall pick
(Update: The Angels system got even stronger with the addition of
Cons: This is by no means a sparkling system. Adell and Jones have their supporters, but neither finished the 2017 season among the Top-100 prospects. There is also a lack of big arms in the system, outside perhaps
Overview: When you have Trout and he's signed for three more years, it's best not to stop talking about Trout until explicitly told to do so. Then quickly mention the other young outfielders and the nice weather.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Money available to Ohtani: $300,000
Pros: The defending National League champions are in a similar spot to the Cubs a year ago. Well, except for the whole World Series title thing. The Major League roster is pretty set, and yet there are six prospects ranked among the Top 100 still in the system.
Cons: There might be good depth here, but finding a guaranteed star is far from a sure thing. Buehler, who underwent Tommy John surgery, might be the closest one, but even he has thrown only 93 2/3 Minor League innings and has yet to go deeper than 5 1/3 frames in a start. Verdugo lacks game power. Alvarez has control issues. Kendall strikes out way too much. Diaz's capabilities haven't fully shown up stateside. There's a real chance that, despite the abundance, none of Los Angeles' prospects hit their considerable ceilings. That's true of any prospect, but since
Overview: The Los Angeles pitch should, of course, be around the big league club, but they should save some words for the pipeline and the potential they have to add more talent, either through their own system or trades -- as they did when acquiring Ohtani's countryman Yu Darvish at the deadline for
San Diego Padres
Money available to Ohtani: $300,000
Pros: If there's a team on this list that should try to sell Ohtani exclusively on its farm system and bright future, it's the Padres. San Diego has seven Top-100 prospects, the most of anyone on this list, and it's an impressive seven.
Cons: First, the rebuild is still a few years away from completion. Of that group above, only Urias has played more than half a season at Double-A or above. The exciting arms -- Gore, Morejon, Baez -- are too far out to be counted upon anytime soon. Recently contract-extended GM A.J. Preller might hammer home that the talent is there, but Ohtani might not be willing to wait to see the system bear fruit.
Overview: The Padres haven't had a winning season since 2010. However, they do play in a pitchers' park on the West Coast in a smaller market than some of the others listed. They've got a fighting chance. Telling Ohtani that they've got the pieces in place to pull an Astros-like turnaround with him as their crown jewel is their best bet.
San Francisco Giants
Money available to Ohtani: $300,000
Pros: The Giants already look like they've done well with 2017 19th-overall pick
Cons: This is not a particularly deep system. It falls off pretty quickly after the four mentioned, and Arroyo (hand injuries), Shaw (defense) and Beede (effectiveness) all have serious questions that keep them from being mentioned anywhere near the most exciting prospects in the game. Even if the organization were to make its farm a talking point, the
Overview: Right now, the Giants would be best at keeping any mention of their farm to a small bullet point in their Ohtani presentation. If they get Stanton, it's probably best they don't bring it up at all.
Seattle Mariners
Money available to Ohtani: $1.5575 million
Pros: Well, uh, top prospect
Cons: Looking for depth here? Yeah, general manager Jerry Dipoto traded that away mostly to benefit the big club, which is fine because benefiting the big club is the goal of the farm system. He also made a deal to send
Overview: Seattle is largely considered a favorite for its spot on the West Coast, history with Ichiro Suzuki, Dipoto's expected full-out recruitment drive and modest money available. They should stick to those points and leave any farm system talking points back at Pike Place.
Texas Rangers
Money available to Ohtani: $3.53 million
Pros: Making a trade to get Willie Calhoun at the deadline for Yu Darvish was solid for a system that was trending down in 2017. Only
Cons: Again, not the deepest system, especially when it comes to pitching. Yohan Mendez shot up the ladder in 2016 but got stuck at Double-A Frisco with just OK numbers this past summer.
Overview: Note that the first letter of each sentence in the Pro category spells out MONEY. The Rangers easily have the most international money of the remaining organizations, and even if Ohtani has shown money won't be a big issue by coming to the U.S. this early, hey, it could always be a good tiebreaker. The Rangers' past with Darvish, who didn't play in the Minors after signing, and their previous history scouting Ohtani will be their legs up. The farm, thankfully in this case, shouldn't have to do any heavy lifting.
Sam Dykstra is a reporter for MiLB.com. Follow and interact with him on Twitter, @SamDykstraMiLB.