Toolshed: Fall League roster rankings
In baseball as in life, there's always the next thing.
We're just a few days from the end of the Minor League regular season, yet one of the biggest stories in Prospectland this week was the announcement of the 2016 Arizona Fall League rosters. And for good reason. Considered a finishing school for top young talent, the AFL is a chance to get some of the game's best prospects all in the same circuit for five weeks in October and November. The All-Star Futures Game may be the closest we get to the AFL in terms of the amount of prospect talent in one place, but of course that's just one game.
This year's Fall League rosters feature 21 of MLB.com's top 100 prospects with groups of five MLB organizations coming together to fill out each of the six AFL squads. Starting with the strongest, here's an initial ranking of all six Fall League rosters:
1. Glendale Desert Dogs
Organizations: Astros, Cardinals, Dodgers, Nationals, White Sox
Top-100 prospects: Francis Martes, David Paulino, Zack Collins, Cody Bellinger, Willie Calhoun, Harrison Bader, Alex Verdugo
Strength: Dodgers contingent -- Los Angeles only has three players on the initial roster, but they just so happen to be three of its top four prospects in Bellinger, Verdugo and Calhoun. Bellinger is the biggest name of the group, and it should be interesting to see how his power plays in Arizona as he's hit 23 homers with an .851 OPS in the Texas League this season. All three are 21 or younger, making them young even by AFL standards, but with each spending this year at Double-A, this is a real chance for them to prove to the Dodgers they're worthy of Major League looks in 2017. (Note: the Dodgers are also expected to send four pitchers to the AFL, though they have yet to be officially named.)
Weakness: None -- This may seem like a bit of a cop-out, but there truly isn't one aspect of the game in which Glendale has a talent deficiency. Between pitching, catching, the infield and the outfield, they have top-100 prospects at each spot, and if you catch a Glendale game live, you're very likely to see two or three big prospects.
Prospect to watch: Collins -- Draft picks who get pushed to the Fall League in their first season always make for intriguing story lines, and that's certainly the case for this year's 10th overall selection out of Louisville. Collins was the first catcher off the board when he was taken by the White Sox because of his bat, and he's lived up to that hype with a .264/.413/.491 line and six homers in 32 games at Class A Advanced Winston-Salem. He'll head to the Fall League with the focus on his defense, since there remain questions about whether he can stick behind the plate. His biggest professional stage yet will be his chance to prove he can.
2. Mesa Solar Sox
Organizations: A's, Blue Jays, Cubs, Indians, Marlins
Top-100 prospects: Franklin Barreto, Ian Happ, Anthony Alford, Bradley Zimmer, Eloy Jimenez
Strength: Outfield -- It's possible that the Solar Sox could roll out an outfield with three top-100 prospects on any given night with Jimenez, Zimmer and Alford each getting named to the Mesa roster. Of course, just because you see a bunch of big names on the same AFL roster, that doesn't mean you'll see them on the field at the same time as clubs try to work out playing time for all. But in this case, it's a real possibility, given that Jimenez has spent the bulk of his time in left, Alford has plus skills in center and Zimmer has experience in right. Alford has the most to prove in that group after hitting just .240 with a .727 OPS in an injury-riddled campaign at Class A Advanced Dunedin. There might come a day when a Major League club would kill for that trio in its outfield at the top level. First, the Solar Sox will reap their rewards.
Weakness: Catching -- Mesa is expected to have four backstops this season, and the big standout of the group might be Victor Caratini -- a hit-first catcher who also has time at first base on his resume and checks in as the No. 15 prospect in the Cubs' system. Blue Jays No. 30 prospect Danny Jansen is the other ranked prospect among the four. Putting the catchers here speaks more to Mesa's depth everywhere else, rather than specific issues behind the plate.
Prospect to watch: Jimenez -- It's been an impressive season for the 19-year-old outfielder, who has passed every test that has come his way. He owns a .331/.371/.536 line with 14 homers, three triples and 40 doubles in a breakout campaign at Class A South Bend and stood out in the Midwest League All-Star Game and All-Star Futures Game. Now the Cubs are pushing him with an assignment to the AFL after one full season, and if he thrives there as well, the sky might truly be the limit for him.
3. Surprise Saguaros
Organizations: Pirates, Rangers, Royals, Red Sox, Twins
Top-100 prospects: Yoan Moncada, Austin Meadows, Michael Kopech, Nick Gordon
Strength: Top talent -- The Sags' initial roster boasts not only the top prospect in the game with Moncada, but two of MLB.com's top 10 overall prospects when you add Meadows. (The possibility that those two could bat in the same lineup might already be giving future opposing Fall League pitchers nightmares.) Beyond those two, Kopech should light up radar guns with his triple-digit fastball as he makes up for time lost to a broken pitching hand, and Gordon has a chance to put on a show at shortstop. If you're going to bet on a Fall League roster that will produce multiple impact Major Leaguers, this is it.
Weakness: Outfield depth -- Right now, the initial Surprise roster only lists four outfielders, and of that quartet, Meadows is the only one who ranks among his organization's top 30 prospects. The AFL will give Danny Mars, Alfredo Escalera and Tanner English a stage on which to prove themselves, but for now it looks like will be more impressive outfields in the Grand Canyon State come October.
Prospect to watch: Mauricio Dubon -- You know to keep an eye on Moncada, but the man to his right for most of the season has made lots of noise himself. The top-ranked shortstop in the Red Sox system, Dubon has hit .319 with five homers, 29 steals and an .833 OPS between Double-A Portland and Class A Advanced Salem and has been even better of late with a .369/.394/.641 line with four homers in August. With solid defense at short, Dubon's stock is already on the rise, and that could be given some jet fuel if he can carry that second-half production into the autumn.
4. Salt River Rafters
Organizations: Braves, Brewers, D-backs, Rockies, Tigers
Top-100 prospects: Ozzie Albies, Brett Phillips
Strength: Second base -- The strength here is up the middle and led by Albies, MLB.com's No.14 overall prospect, who is attempting to help build the infield of the future in Atlanta. The 19-year-old switch-hitter has proven to be a solid shortstop, but with Dansby Swanson having that locked up for the Braves, he's been getting all of his time at second base, a trend that should continue in the AFL. If it does, he'll split the keystone with No. 10 Brewers prospect Isan Diaz, who has shown surprising pop with a Midwest League-best 20 homers. Speaking of pop, Braves No. 9 prospect Travis Demeritte will be out to prove the 28 long balls he's hit in 2016 aren't entirely fueled by his time in the California League when he was in the Rangers system. Albies and Diaz could also get time at short to spread the playing time at second, but no matter who's playing there for the Rafters, it should be a prospect worth watching.
Weakness: Pitching -- Salt River doesn't boast any of the major arms you're more likely to see on the rosters above, though that could change as rosters are fluid and additions could be made. For now, however, you're better off looking elsewhere for standout, high-impact arms.
Prospect to watch: Christin Stewart -- The Tigers' No. 3 prospect did something no one ever does in the Florida State League -- he hit for power. His 24 homers for Lakeland still lead the circuit, even though he hasn't played there since early August, and are 10 more than anyone hit in the FSL in 2015. However, he's struggled some with a .211 average and three homers in 20 games for Double-A Erie. The AFL will offer another chance to prove he can handle tougher pitching and gain some positive momentum going into his second offseason.
5. Peoria Javelinas
Organizations: Mariners, Orioles, Padres, Rays, Reds
Top-100 prospects: Brent Honeywell, Tyler O'Neill
Strength: Starting pitching -- The Javelinas are fifth here for a reason, but if you want to get excited about one thing for this club, it's having both Honeywell and Luiz Gohara in its rotation. Honeywell has one of the most interesting pitches in the Minors with his screwball, but his entire four-pitch arsenal has helped him post a 2.34 ERA with 117 strikeouts in 115 1/3 innings across two levels during the regular season. (He heads to the Fall League after being somewhat limited by arm soreness earlier in the summer.) Gohara, the No. 5 prospect in the Mariners system, has broken out in the way Seattle always hoped he would with a 1.95 ERA and 75 strikeouts in 64 2/3 innings. The left-hander should have plenty in the tank after not starting his season until June and could join Honeywell in the top 100 with a strong fall showing.
Weakness: Infield -- The Javelinas have No. 3 Mariners prospect Drew Jackson among their seven rostered infielders, and the 23-year-old should provide a solid hit tool, some good speed and impressive defense. Other than that, none of the other six feature among their system's top 30 prospects. That's a drop-off from every other roster that has at least one top-100 prospect there.
Prospect to watch: O'Neill -- O'Neill had to answer the question about whether his 2015 power was manufactured by the California League. All he's done since is won the Southern League MVP award by hitting .295/.375/.513 with 24 homers and 101 RBIs for Double-A Jackson. There aren't any questions left about his prospect legitimacy, and the Fall League could provide the exclamation point on the definitive statement that has been his 2016 campaign.
6. Scottsdale Scorpions
Organizations -- Angels, Giants, Mets, Phillies, Yankees
Top-100 prospects: Gleyber Torres
Strengths: New York, New York -- The three most notable players on the Scorpions initial roster call Big Apple organizations home between Torres, Gavin Cecchini and Greg Bird. Torres, still new to the Yankees after coming over from the Cubs at the deadline, and Cecchini will likely split time at shortstop. The former is the higher-ranked prospect, but Cecchini is the more finished product after hitting .325 at Triple-A Las Vegas this season. More on Bird in a bit.
Weakness: Pitching -- As it stands now, Scottsdale has as many infielders (nine) on its roster as pitchers, and that's not a great sign in the arms department. Only Angels No. 8 prospect Victor Alcantara is ranked by MLB.com among his system's top 30 prospects, and even he has issues with a 4.38 ERA and 55 walks in 109 innings at Double-A Arkansas. Additions are likely coming as we get closer to AFL Opening Day, but pitching could be an issue for the Scorpions.
Player to watch: Bird -- We switched up the name of this category, considering Bird already has 157 Major League at-bats on his resume and is no longer a prospect per se. The 23-year-old first baseman will use the AFL as his first stepping stone in his comeback from shoulder surgery, which kept him away from the Bronx all season. It'll be a familiar stepping stone, too. Bird was the AFL MVP in 2014 when he hit .313/.391/.556 with six homers and 21 RBIs in 26 games for Scottsdale, and his presence will provide a reminder that the Fall League isn't just for the up-and-comer.
Sam Dykstra is a reporter for MiLB.com. Follow and interact with him on Twitter, @SamDykstraMiLB.