2023 first-rounder leads Brewers' Arizona Fall League contingent

Brock Wilken might already have won the award for Understatement of the Arizona Fall League. On the topic of the plunking that resulted in facial fractures on April 11 with Double-A Biloxi, just the fifth game of his first full season, he said:

“The hit-by-pitch didn’t feel great.”

Six months later, that remains a topic of conversation as the Brewers’ No. 8 prospect gets going in the AFL to make up not only for the lost time but some of his momentary lost confidence too.

Wilken played one rehab game in the Arizona Complex League on May 4, got hit again by a 94 mph fastball in the ribs on the second pitch he saw and was promptly sent back to Double-A, returning to the Shuckers lineup on May 7 with a protective cage attached to his helmet -- less than one month after the initial injury. That might seem like a record for what seemed like such a scary injury, but there was still more to getting comfortable again.

“Mentally and physically, it’s still a struggle,” Wilken said. “There were points later on in the season and guys were throwing upwards of 100 and they didn’t really know where it was going. I still had that fear in my mind even though I was wearing the full protective cage. There’s still that little bit of fear, like ‘Is this guy going to let one loose again?’”

That little bit of doubt in the box could prove disastrous for a player whose value is so tied into his bat. After all, the Wake Forest product set an ACC record with 71 homers over his three seasons on campus, and his 31 blasts as a junior placed him second in Division I in 2023. It was that plus power that got the Brewers excited to make the right-handed slugger the 18th overall pick, push him to Double-A in his Draft year and return him there for 2024.

But Wilken entered July with just a .225/.315/.393 line and eight homers in 51 games. He got hot in July (.874 OPS) but slumped again in August and September to finish out the season with a .199/.312/.363 line. His 17 homers were still good for fourth-best in the Southern League, a circuit where the leaguewide OPS was just .664 -- 13th-best out of the 14 full-season affiliated leagues.

“If a guy’s hitting .230, you’re like, wow, this guy is a good hitter,” Wilken said, “because it’s really that tough of a league to be in.”

Getting Wilken into the dry desert air where balls famously soar much better than in the humid Southern League ballparks was one impetus for his AFL placement. It’s important to remember that just one year ago the former Demon Deacon was batting behind Brewers phenom Jackson Chourio in the Biloxi lineup, and he’d like to be doing the same again, this time in the Majors after a positive Fall League run and overall return to powerful form.

“The Brewers love to move guys if you’re doing well,” Wilken said. “It gives you more to play for.”

Brewers hitters in the Fall League

Luis Lara, OF (No. 17): A $1.1 million signing in 2022, Lara has been pushed aggressively by the Brewers in the last two seasons, first skipping over the Arizona Complex League last year and then jumping to High-A Wisconsin for a full season this summer. He ranked third in High-A plate appearances (489) among players aged 19 or younger; only Top 100 prospects Cam Collier (507) and Sebastian Walcott (491) had more. Despite making a healthy amount of contact and swiping 45 bags, the switch-hitting outfielder didn’t have quite the season many hoped, particularly when it came to showing pop -- Lara had only four homers and a .327 slugging percentage. Driving the ball with more authority should be a focus in the AFL and beyond as he heads into his 20s, though his speed, glove and arm still give him a decent floor.

Juan Baez, 3B/2B (No. 27): Baez burst onto the scene in 2023 as a .370 hitter with a .952 OPS over 48 games in the Arizona Complex League during his first stateside campaign and was showing signs of getting hot for Single-A Carolina this season, when a pickoff attempt on May 29 led to an injury in his right shoulder area. The infielder missed six weeks before hitting the ACL for a rehab assignment but never quite found a rhythm at the plate, finishing with a .272/.332/.361 line and 106 wRC+ in 81 games with the Mudcats. The 19-year-old still made tons of contact, striking out only 9.0 percent of the time. He’ll need that hit tool to be a driver with 45s and 50s filling out the rest of his profile.

Brewers pitchers in the Fall League

Coleman Crow, RHP (No. 30): Crow last pitched in a Minor League game on April 26, 2023. He was an Angel and at Double-A. Since then, he was traded to the Mets that June, underwent Tommy John surgery later in the summer and was moved to the Brewers last offseason. The 23-year-old right-hander made his Milwaukee organizational debut with Peoria on Oct. 10, showing a 90-91 mph fastball, upper-80s cutter and mid-80s slider. But his bread-and-butter remains a mid-70s curveball that touched above 3,000 rpm at times and showed sharp break. A good Fall League could make for an interesting 40-man decision for the Crew or Rule 5 decision for another club.

Ryan Birchard, RHP: Milwaukee likes its junior-college arms, and Birchard looked like the organization’s latest find last year when it plucked the Niagara County product in the fifth round. Birchard had promising velocity in the mid-90s and showed two above-average breakers in his curve and slider, but he couldn’t show off because oblique issues limited him to only 21 1/3 innings in what was meant to be his first full season.

Will Childers, RHP: Matt Childers made eight appearances for the Brewers as a rookie in 2002, and 20 years later, his son Will signed with the same club as an undrafted free agent out of Georgia. The younger hurler is coming off a breakout season this summer in which he posted a 4.15 ERA with 56 strikeouts and 18 walks in 52 relief innings between High-A and Double-A. He can run his fastball up to 97 and will show an upper-80s cutter, 82-86 mph slider and low-80s curveball.

Mark Manfredi, LHP: Manfredi -- a ninth-round pick out of Dayton last year -- worked as both a starter and reliever at High-A Wisconsin in his first full season, posting a 3.91 ERA, 95 strikeouts and 43 walks in 76 innings. The control issues would signal that he’s likely headed to the bullpen full-time, and his stuff would certainly play in that role. Throwing from a low three-quarters slot, the southpaw can run his fastball up to 97-98 mph, and he can spin a quality slider too.

Nick Merkel, RHP: The Brewers signed Merkel out of the independent Pioneer League in 2022, and two years later, he’s climbed to Double-A as a reliever. The 6-foot-7 righty, whose nickname is The Large Mammal, finished with a 3.43 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 87 strikeouts in 78 2/3 innings for Biloxi in his age-25 season before moving to the Peoria roster for the fall. Merkel doesn’t have a ton of fastball velocity (sitting typically 91-93), but he can get whiffs with his secondary offerings, highlighted by a low-80s knucklecurve.