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Patriots Playoff Preview: EL Division Series

September 16, 2024

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Bridgewater, New Jersey – The Patriots trailed first place Portland in the Eastern League’s Northeast division by six games almost a month ago to the day, on August 18. Somerset then proceeded to go on an improbable 17-7 run over its final 24 games to take hold of the second-half division championship by just 1.5 games on their way to clinching their third consecutive postseason berth with a 5-1 victory over New Hampshire on Sunday. Mere hours after the celebratory champagne has dried, the Patriots shifted their focus to the Hartford Yard Goats, who were crowned first half champions after going 38-30. The two clubs have a date in the best-of-three division series that opens on Tuesday night at TD Bank Ballpark before game two and potentially game three would shift to Dunkin Park on Thursday and Friday later this week.

Somerset posted a league-best +82 run differential in the second half while their 42-25 mark, was the best overall mark in the EL by 0.5 game over Akron. The club is coming into the postseason scorching; they’ve been playing do-or-die baseball for the better part of the last four weeks as the Patriots find themselves winners of five consecutive series. They needed just about each and every one of those victories, after edging out the Sea Dogs by the narrowest of margins for a ticket into the dance.

The Patriots have beaten Hartford more than any other team in the league (51-20) and have never lost a series to them (8-0-4) since they joined the affiliated ranks of Minor League Baseball in 2021. While history is on their side, the two clubs were fairly evenly contested in 2024; Somerset went 9-7 against the Goats in their 16 meetings, splitting 12 meetings in Bridgewater in the first half while going 4-1 on the road in Hartford in the second half.

Yankees No. 2 prospect Spencer Jones has been in the spotlight all season long. Jones’ 17 HR this season are his single-season career-high and tops among Patriots batters this season. Jones has hit safely in five of his last six games and reached base in eight straight contests. Over his last eight games, Jones is 9-for-29 (.310) with 2 HR, 5 XBH, 4 RBI, and 6 R. Over his 25 last games since 8/17, Jones is batting .326/.379/.600 with 3 HR, 15 RBI, 17 XBH, and 15 R. Jones ranks among Eastern League leaders with 17 HR (T-7th), 78 RBI (2nd), 125 H (3rd), 30 2B (T-1st), 6 3B (2nd), 52 XBH (T-1st), 218 TB (2nd), 73 R (3rd), and 25 SB (T-9th). Jones ranks among Yankees minor league leaders with 17 HR (6th), 78 RBI (1st), 125 H (2nd), 30 2B (T-2nd), 53 XBH (1st), 218 TB (1st), and 73 R (T-3rd). After batting .205 with 2 HR and a .594 OPS over his first 37 games this season, Jones went on to hit .279 with 15 HR and a .866 OPS over his final 86 games.

OF Elijah Dunham was named the Eastern League Player of the Week for the third time this season, joining Jones as three-time honorees in 2024. In five games played during this week’s playoff-clinching series against New Hampshire, Dunham went 7-for-18 (.389) with 4 HR, 10 RBI, 6 R and 4 SB. Dunham’s 10 RBI are the most he has plated in a single series this season.

Dunham went 2-for-4 with a 2 HR and 6 RBI game on Tuesday night. The performance marked Dunham’s second career two-homer game and a new career-high in RBI.

In the clinching game on Sunday, Dunham hit his 15th homer of the season in his 20th multi-hit game. Over his final 64 games of the season dating back to 6/13, Dunham ranks among Eastern League leaders with 12 HR (T-4th), 40 RBI (T-9th), 28 XBH (4th) and 115 TB (5th).

Dunham previously won back-to-back Eastern League Player of the Week honors for games played 7/1 – 7/7 and 7/8 – 7/14. Against Reading from 7/1 – 7/7, the Evansville, IN native went 10-for-25 (.400) with 2 HR, 8 RBI, 3 R and 6 XBH in 6 games. He followed up that performance the next week versus Erie by going 8-for-19 (.421) with 2 HR, 4 RBI, 4 R, 4 XBH, 2 SB and a 1.342 OPS over 5 games played.

Patriots’ right-hander Bailey Dees is scheduled to toe the rubber in the series opener on Tuesday night. The 25-year-old Dees, who was converted from a leverage reliever to a starter during spring training back in February, finished his first season in the rotation by finishing second in the EL in strikeouts (147) and proved to be a reliable work horse for manager Raul Dominguez, finishing in the top-10 amongst league qualified pitchers in Wins (7, 6th), ERA (4.25, 10th), Starts (27, 6th), Innings (137.2, 6th), WHIP (1.25, 8th) and BAA (.226, 5th). Dees started three games against Hartford this season, most recently on 8/14 – in those three outings, the Penn State-product went 16.2 innings, and allowed 10 earned runs on 19 hits while fanning 21 batters. Over his final four starts of the regular season, Dees allowed just three earned runs on 13 hits to go along with 29 strikeouts over 22.2 frames.

Right-hander Zach Messinger has been the Patriots best pitcher for most of the season and for certain in the league's second half. Messinger, who was converted from a reliever in the early part of 2022, had an impressive, yet consistent Double-A debut in 2024. The 2021 13th-rounder tossed the most innings in the EL (150) while posting a 3.06 ERA, which was the second-best mark in the entire league and best among all Yankees full-season hurlers while his 1.11 WHIP and .207 BAA were also league highs. In nine starts for Somerset out of the All-Star break, Messinger went 5-0 and allowed just nine earned runs over 54 innings (1.50 ERA). Messinger made four starts against Hartford during the regular season – he pitched to a 4.24 ERA with 19 strikeouts in 19.1 innings pitched.

If the Patriots are forced to go to a decisive game three on Friday night at Dunkin' Park, they will hand the ball to southpaw Ben Shields, who has been somewhat of a revelation since joining the Somerset rotation on July 3. The 25-year-old Boston native was a non-drafted free agent, but has firmly put himself on the radar by pitching to a 3.12 ERA with 65 punchouts in 52 innings of work for the Pats. In his lone start against the Goats back on August 17, Shields allowed just two earned runs and fanned seven over 4.1 innings of work.

The core performers for both clubs have changed drastically over the course of the season, but this version of Hartford is certainly not lacking in talent, sporting five of the Rockies' top 15 organizational prospects on the MLB Pipeline list. The headliner is Colorado’s second-ranked prospect in right-hander Chase Dollander, who was the ninth overall selection in the MLB Draft out of Tennessee just a year ago. Dollander was promoted to Hartford on July 24 and distinguished himself as one of the elite pitching prospects in the game, pitching to a 2.25 ERA with a .195 BAA in nine starts at the Double-A level. In his lone start against Somerset this season, Dollander tossed seven shutout frames and fanned nine batters back on August 16.

Rockies fifth-ranked prospect Adael Amador actually made a brief cameo at the big-league level earlier this season but has otherwise spent the entirety of his 2024 campaign in Hartford. The 21-year-old Dominican product hit just .230, but finishing eighth in the league in walks allowed him to get on base at a .343 clip to utilize his top-notch speed. Amador finished the regular season second in the EL in stolen bases with 35.

Infielder Zach Kokoska may not be a name popping off of many prospects list, but the Rockies farmhand has a power prowess that always poses a threat in a short series. The 25-year-old slugger hit just .216 on the year, but he walked away with the Eastern League home run title after blasting a career-high 20 long balls this season.

The winner of this series will quickly hit the road to open up the Eastern League Championship on Sunday, hosted by the winner of the Akron-Erie divisional series matchup, before coming home for game two and potentially game three next Tuesday and Wednesday.

Series Probable Pitching Matchups:

Tue: RHP Chase Dollander (2-1, 2.25 ERA) vs. RHP Bailey Dees (7-7, 4.25 ERA)
Thu: RHP Zach Messinger (7-8, 3.06 ERA) vs. LHP Sean Sullivan (2-0, 1.97 ERA)
Fri: LHP Ben Shields (2-2, 3.12 ERA) vs. RHP Connor Van Scoyoc (7-7 4.46 ERA)

Matt Kardos | SomersetPatriots.com Senior Writer

Matt Kardos has covered the Yankees minor league system for over a decade and will spend his 12th season on the beat covering the Patriots for SomersetPatriots.com. Throughout his career, Matt has contributed to MLB.com, YES Network and Pinstriped Prospects. When he’s not at the ballpark, Matt enjoys traveling with his wife Kimberly, watching Jets football and collecting sports cards.